Surrender and insurance

Surrender and insurance are side decisions with opposite verdicts. Players surrender too little, and it saves money. Players insure too much, and it loses money.

Late surrender gives back half your bet to leave a hand after the dealer checks for blackjack. Surrendering loses exactly 50 cents per dollar, so it is correct when playing on loses more, which means when your hand wins less than 25% of the time. Only the true disasters qualify at our default H17 rules. Hard 16, but not 8-8, surrenders against 9, 10, or ace. Hard 15 surrenders against a 10 or ace. The strange one is hard 17 against an ace. That made 17 still wins so rarely against an ace that re-draws soft 17s that half a bet back is the better trade. S17 tables trim the list. No 15 v ace, no 17 v ace. The list is narrow on purpose. Surrender is not for bad hands in general. It is for the half-dozen worst matchups in the game. Most players never surrender because it feels like quitting. Those specific hands are worth quitting, and refusing costs 2–5 cents per dollar each time.

The dealer offers insurance whenever the upcard is an ace. It is a side bet at half your stake, paying 2:1 that the hole card is a ten. The casino frames it as protecting your hand, and the bet has nothing to do with your hand. It is a standalone wager that the hole card is one of the 16 ten-values among 51 unseen cards, about 31%, when break-even needs 33.3%. Every insurance bet loses about 7 cents per dollar. 'Even money' on your own blackjack is the same bet under another name and the same mistake. One exception. Card counters take insurance when the count is high enough, and the Counting Course covers that Index Play. Until you are counting, the answer is never.

This Checkpoint covers the surrender region with surrender offered at the table, where hit is often close and surrender is right.