Index Plays

Basic strategy assumes a neutral shoe. When the count says the shoe is not neutral, a handful of plays flip, and those flips are worth roughly a fifth to a quarter of a counter's whole edge. Those flips are Index Plays (also called deviations). Each Index Play has an index. At or above that True Count, make the Index Play. Below it, play the chart. The reasoning is the same every time. A positive count means the undealt shoe is ten-rich. Standing gets safer because the dealer busts more, doubling gets stronger because you catch tens, and insurance becomes profitable.

Insurance at true +3 and 16 v 10 at 0 are the two Index Plays that matter most. Insurance is a side bet that the hole card is a ten. In a neutral shoe about 31% of cards are tens, and at a 2:1 payout that is a losing bet. At True Count +3, ten-density crosses one-third and the bet becomes profitable. This one Index Play is worth more than all the others combined, which is why 'never take insurance' is right for everyone except counters, and why this site trained you to decline it until now. 16 v 10 is nearly a coin flip between hit and stand even in a neutral shoe. The chart's hit wins by pennies. As soon as the shoe tilts ten-rich at all, hitting 16 gets more dangerous and standing behind a busting dealer gets better. Index zero, meaning any non-negative count, flips it to stand.

Eight more Index Plays complete the essential set. 15 v 10, stand at +4. 12 v 3, stand at +2. 12 v 2, stand at +3. 10 v 10 and 10 v ace, double at +4. 9 v 2, double at +1. 13 v 2, stand at −1 or better, which is a rare negative-count Index Play. Below −1 the shoe is so full of low cards that hitting 13 into them becomes right. At +5, splitting tens against a 5 becomes correct. It also tells every floor supervisor in the building what you are, and the cover Lesson deals with that.

Do not memorize all of these at once. Insurance first, 16 v 10 second, because those two carry most of the money. Add the rest a pair at a time. The EV engine on this site confirms the direction of every Index Play on this list. Shift the shoe ten-rich and its recommended play flips at the index. It is the same arithmetic you have already trained.